It’s still too soon to say if a tropical disturbance expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week could affect Alabama. One of the reasons is it hasn’t even formed yet. But forecasters have reasonable confidence that it will, and it could become a tropical depression, or stronger, and head generally northward later this week.

A trough, or elongated area of low pressure, is expected to dig southward across the Midwest and/or Northeast late next week. If this trough is deeper and dips farther south, it will likely grab on to the tropical cyclone and pull to the northeast, possibly toward Florida. However, if the trough is shallower, a more western track appears likelier.