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Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs.

Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538's forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs.

Here's everything that goes into this year's model. On Wednesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the U.S. Senate. The model powering this forecast combines our polling averages for ...

A modest error in his favor was enough to sweep the swing states. Here at 538, we think a big part of our jobs during election season is to explore and explain how ...

The closest election of the century keeps getting closer. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former ...