For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

The Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen in 2026, with two-year yields likely to resume their downward trend while the U.S. budget deficit and high Treasury supply support higher 10-year yields ...

July 3 (Reuters) - A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion on Monday since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets ...

This week's simulation shows that inverted yields are a 93.4% probability through August 2023. Details below. Excel summaries of the simulation results for 3-month T-bills and the 10-year Treasury are ...

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NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - A key bond market signal of an upcoming recession has flashed red continuously for the longest time ever, even if the U.S. economy is far from showing signs of a growth ...